Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Phillies COL @ PHI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

15-23  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, May 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

17-21  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 4.66 -- 1.0 1
Orion Kerkering None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.66 ERA Ldr 1.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Phillies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
COLORADO
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
7
COLORADO
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 COL @ PHI 0 - 6
May 9, 2026 COL @ PHI 3 - 9
May 8, 2026 COL @ PHI 9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026 PHI @ COL 1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026 PHI @ COL 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.739 ▲
OPS
.724
180 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +37.4% more
Philadelphia: 8.6 vs Colorado: 6.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.1%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Colorado: 41.7%
Home Runs (Season) +98.3% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +24.6% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.0 9
PHI Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 8.6 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.2 16.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 14.7 17.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.2 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
COL
PHI
COL
ML
59% 97-67
60% 97-64
49% 80-84
55% 88-73
ATS
65% 107-57
60% 97-64
51% 83-81
52% 83-78
TTL
57% 88-67-9
60% 93-62-6
51% 78-76-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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