CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
20-17 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
25-12 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Hollowell
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
| Gavin Hollowell | None-None | 10.80 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40 Ldr
ERA
10.80
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
CUBS
0%
REDS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699
▲
OPS
.374
213
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+37.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
Chicago: 8.9
vs
Cincinnati: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
3
CHC Score
6.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.2
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.0
12.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 14.1
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.1 / 5.5
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58%
93-68
55%
88-71
51%
82-79
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-72-5
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