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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

17-19  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, May 7 • 12:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

25-12  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Peyton Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Peyton Gray

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brent Headrick
STARTING PITCHER

Brent Headrick

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peyton Gray None-None 1.29 -- 1.0 1
Brent Headrick None-None 1.37 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.29 Ldr ERA 1.37
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
📊
YANKEES
100%
RANGERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

69.1%

Yankees Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.4%

NYY By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
TEXAS
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.713
OPS
▲ 1.041
183 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +120.8% more
New York: 4.2 vs Texas: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season) +116.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Texas: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 6.0 2
NYY Score 4.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 8.1 14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.4 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 12.4 21.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.2 / 1.9 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TEX
NYY
TEX
ML
47% 76-85
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 95-66
57% 92-70
53% 86-76
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 78-70-14
53% 82-72-7
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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