CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
20-16 | Road
6
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
24-12 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brock Burke
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trent Thornton
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Burke | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Trent Thornton | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
CUBS
0%
REDS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Chicago
7
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699
▲
OPS
.374
213
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.7% more
Chicago: 9.4
vs
Cincinnati: 7.0
Hits (L5)
+9.5% more
Chicago: 7.9
vs
Cincinnati: 7.2
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
6
CHC Score
7.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.2
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.6
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.0
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 13.1
17.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.6 / 6.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58%
93-68
55%
88-71
51%
82-79
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox