Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Astros LAD @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

22-14  |  Road

12
FINAL
Wed, May 6 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

15-22  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brock Stewart
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Stewart

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Enyel De Los Santos
STARTING PITCHER

Enyel De Los Santos

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brock Stewart None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Enyel De Los Santos None-None 4.80 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.80
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
ASTROS
100%
DODGERS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

Astros Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

HOU By 1-2 runs

13.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
LOS ANGELES
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 LAD @ HOU 12 - 2
May 5, 2026 LAD @ HOU 1 - 2
May 4, 2026 LAD @ HOU 8 - 3
Jul 6, 2025 HOU @ LAD 5 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 HOU @ LAD 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.762 ▲
OPS
.582
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +39.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +18.0%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Houston: 58.2%
Strikeouts (L5) +15.2% more
Los Angeles: 9.4 vs Houston: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 7.0 12
HOU Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.6 5.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 12.0 8.0 / 28.0
Walks 4.5 / 1.7 5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
96%MONEY4%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAD
HOU
LAD
ML
50% 81-82
56% 92-73
47% 77-87
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 98-67
55% 90-74
43% 72-94
TTL
45% 70-84-9
48% 77-82-6
45% 69-86-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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