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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

16-20  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, May 6 • 1:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

23-12  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Fluharty None-None 6.39 -- 0.1 --
Ian Seymour None-None 5.09 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.39 ERA Ldr 5.09
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
BLUE JAYS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TORONTO
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 TOR @ TB 5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 TOR @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026 TOR @ TB 10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026 TB @ TOR 1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 TB @ TOR 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .728
152
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.9% more
Tampa Bay: 2.2 vs Toronto: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season) +13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Strikeouts (L5) +10.2% more
Tampa Bay: 7.1 vs Toronto: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.0 0
TB Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 9.1 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.4 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 13.2 7.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.2 / 1.8 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58% 95-68
46% 74-87
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 90-71
55% 90-73
49% 79-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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