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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-15  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 5 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

23-12  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 1.84 -- -- --
Jacob Webb None-None 3.95 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.84 Ldr ERA 3.95
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
REDS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +37.6% more
Chicago: 9.6 vs Cincinnati: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.5% more
Chicago: 15.6 vs Cincinnati: 13.6
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
Chicago: 0.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.0 2
CHC Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.9 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.0 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 13.6 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.0 / 5.9 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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