TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
16-18 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
24-11 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 2.16 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| David Bednar | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.16 Ldr
ERA
3.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
YANKEES
100%
RANGERS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
6
TEXAS
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
TEX @ NYY
2 - 9
May 6, 2026
TEX @ NYY
6 - 1
May 5, 2026
TEX @ NYY
4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026
NYY @ TEX
0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
NYY @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.713
OPS
▲
1.041
183
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+148.0% more
New York: 1.9
vs
Texas: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+116.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Texas: 4.2
Total Bases (L5)
+102.4% more
New York: 20.4
vs
Texas: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
6.0
4
NYY Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 7.3
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.5
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.6
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
20.4 / 10.1
21.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TEX
NYY
TEX
ML
47%
76-85
53%
86-76
52%
85-77
57%
91-70
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
92-70
53%
86-76
61%
98-63
TTL
53%
81-73-7
53%
78-70-14
53%
82-72-7
55%
81-66-14
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