TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
16-19 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
22-12 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Legumina
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.51 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Casey Legumina | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.51 Ldr
ERA
3.52
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
RAYS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.728
152
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
OPS (Season)
+3.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.1%
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
3
TB Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.6
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 14.3
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58%
95-68
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
90-71
55%
90-73
49%
79-81
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-10
45%
70-85-5
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