Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Astros LAD @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

22-13  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, May 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

14-22  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 1.42 -- 1.0 1
Bryan King None-None 3.45 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.42 Ldr ERA 3.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
ASTROS
0%
DODGERS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Astros Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOS ANGELES
7
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 LAD @ HOU 12 - 2
May 5, 2026 LAD @ HOU 1 - 2
May 4, 2026 LAD @ HOU 8 - 3
Jul 6, 2025 HOU @ LAD 5 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 HOU @ LAD 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.762 ▲
OPS
.582
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +79.3% more
Houston: 4.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Houston: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.0 1
HOU Score 7.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.9 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 9.6 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 14.0 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.7 / 2.6 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAD
HOU
LAD
ML
50% 81-82
56% 92-73
47% 77-87
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 98-67
55% 90-74
43% 72-94
TTL
45% 70-84-9
48% 77-82-6
45% 69-86-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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