Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Cubs CIN @ CHC

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

20-14  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

22-12  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Rolison
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Rolison

#33 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 6.43 -- 0.2 1
Ryan Rolison None-None 3.52 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
6.43 ERA Ldr 3.52
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
CUBS
100%
REDS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CINCINNATI
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +58.3% more
Cincinnati: 5.8 vs Chicago: 2.4
OPS (Season) +32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 6.0 4
CHC Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.8 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.9 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.4 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.4 / 5.8 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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