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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

16-18  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

21-12  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Fluharty None-None 6.57 -- 0.1 1
Bryan Baker None-None 2.63 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.57 ERA Ldr 2.63
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
BLUE JAYS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TORONTO
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 TOR @ TB 5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 TOR @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026 TOR @ TB 10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026 TB @ TOR 1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 TB @ TOR 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .728
152
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +74.4% more
Toronto: 1.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +39.5% more
Toronto: 16.0 vs Tampa Bay: 9.7
Walks (L5) +37.2% more
Toronto: 2.7 vs Tampa Bay: 1.7
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Toronto: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.0 1
TB Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 9.4 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.2 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 16.0 14.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58% 95-68
46% 74-87
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 90-71
55% 90-73
49% 79-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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