LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
21-13 | Road
8
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
14-21 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Dreyer
#86 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Dreyer | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bennett Sousa | None-None | 8.10 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.93 Ldr
ERA
8.10
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
ASTROS
0%
DODGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
LAD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
LAD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
LAD @ HOU
12 - 2
May 5, 2026
LAD @ HOU
1 - 2
May 4, 2026
LAD @ HOU
8 - 3
Jul 6, 2025
HOU @ LAD
5 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
HOU @ LAD
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.762
▲
OPS
.582
204
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+81.0% more
Houston: 0.9
vs
Los Angeles: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+55.3% more
Houston: 4.5
vs
Los Angeles: 2.9
Total Bases (L5)
+47.4% more
Houston: 15.4
vs
Los Angeles: 10.5
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
Houston: 10.6
vs
Los Angeles: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
4.0
8
HOU Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 8.4
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 6.9
11.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 10.5
9.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.9
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAD
HOU
LAD
ML
50%
81-82
56%
92-73
47%
77-87
48%
79-87
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
98-67
55%
90-74
43%
72-94
TTL
45%
70-84-9
48%
77-82-6
45%
69-86-9
44%
70-90-6
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