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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

18-15  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, May 4 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

20-14  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant Anderson None-None 3.18 -- 0.2 --
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.12 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 ERA Ldr 2.12
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

77.3%

Cardinals Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

10.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MILWAUKEE
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +28.3% more
Milwaukee: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
On-Base Pct (Season) +2.8%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs St. Louis: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 6.0 3
STL Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.7 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.6 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 10.0 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.3 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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