HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
13-21 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
13-20 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 10.32 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.32
ERA
Ldr 0.84
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
RED SOX
100%
ASTROS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Boston
3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Boston
BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.169
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.354
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.582
▲
OPS
.409
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+55.2% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Boston: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+36.6% more
Houston: 4.8
vs
Boston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5)
+34.8% more
Houston: 17.1
vs
Boston: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.0
3
BOS Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 10.9
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.3
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 17.1
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
47%
76-87
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
91-72
48%
79-84
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-84-9
47%
74-83-6
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…