TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
16-17 | Road
1
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
17-17 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 1.72 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 0.54 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.72
ERA
Ldr 0.54
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
TIGERS
0%
RANGERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TEX By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
7.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
DET @ TEX
6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
DET @ TEX
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026
DET @ TEX
4 - 10
May 3, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.8% more
Detroit: 9.3
vs
Texas: 7.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.1% more
Detroit: 8.3
vs
Texas: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+18.0% more
Detroit: 13.2
vs
Texas: 11.2
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Detroit: 0.8
vs
Texas: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.0
1
DET Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 7.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.9
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 11.2
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TEX
DET
TEX
ML
54%
86-73
53%
86-76
54%
87-73
57%
91-70
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
92-70
57%
91-69
61%
98-63
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
78-70-14
46%
69-81-10
55%
81-66-14
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