SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
13-20 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
20-12 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Keaton Winn
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Winn | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 5.87 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.63 Ldr
ERA
5.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
RAYS
0%
GIANTS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
SF By 1-2 runs
10.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
5.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
1
SAN FRANCISCO
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
San Francisco
2
SAN FRANCISCO
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
SF @ TB
1 - 2
May 2, 2026
SF @ TB
1 - 5
May 1, 2026
SF @ TB
0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025
TB @ SF
1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025
TB @ SF
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.706
OPS
▲
.728
178
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7
vs
San Francisco: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+11.4% more
Tampa Bay: 10.5
vs
San Francisco: 9.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
1.0
1
TB Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.7
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.1
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 9.4
8.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.6 / 3.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SF
TB
SF
ML
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
58%
95-68
53%
85-75
ATS
60%
97-66
62%
100-60
55%
90-73
52%
83-77
TTL
47%
73-81-9
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-75-10
46%
68-81-11
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…