Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Nationals MIL @ WSH

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

18-14  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, May 3 • 1:35 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

15-19  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Logan Henderson
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Henderson

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Henderson None-None 4.50 -- 6.0 8
Zack Littell None-None 7.24 -- 3.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 Ldr ERA 7.24
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.2
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
📊
NATIONALS
0%
BREWERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MILWAUKEE
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MIL @ WSH 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 MIL @ WSH 4 - 1
May 1, 2026 MIL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 WSH @ MIL 8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ MIL 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.743
OPS
▲ .744
154
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +74.0% more
Washington: 1.3 vs Milwaukee: 0.6
Walks (L5) +51.6% more
Washington: 4.4 vs Milwaukee: 2.9
Home Runs (Season) +36.4% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Home Runs (L5) +11.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs Milwaukee: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 3.0 2
WSH Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.5 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.0 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 12.5 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57% 92-69
62% 101-61
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 94-68
57% 91-70
48% 78-84
TTL
50% 77-78-6
40% 62-92-8
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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