Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Rockies ATL @ COL

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

23-10  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

14-19  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 1.15 -- 1.0 1
Tanner Gordon None-None 6.43 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.15 Ldr ERA 6.43
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
BRAVES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

69.1%

Rockies Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ATLANTA
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 COL @ ATL 2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 COL @ ATL 1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 COL @ ATL 4 - 6
May 3, 2026 ATL @ COL 11 - 6
May 2, 2026 ATL @ COL 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Colorado COL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.757 ▲
OPS
.739
1
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Atlanta: 0.8 vs Colorado: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +21.1% more
Atlanta: 1.3 vs Colorado: 1.1
Walks (L5) +20.6% more
Atlanta: 4.8 vs Colorado: 3.8
Strikeouts (L5) +8.8% more
Atlanta: 8.0 vs Colorado: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 5.0 9
COL Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 8.5 4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.0 8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 14.9 5.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ATL
COL
ATL
ML
60% 97-64
46% 77-90
55% 88-73
54% 90-78
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 96-71
52% 83-78
52% 87-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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