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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

16-15  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

20-12  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 3.68 -- 0.1 --
Shota Imanaga None-None 2.40 -- 7.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.68 ERA Ldr 2.40
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ARIZONA
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CHC @ ARI 0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026 CHC @ ARI 4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026 CHC @ ARI 7 - 0
May 3, 2026 ARI @ CHC 4 - 8
May 2, 2026 ARI @ CHC 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720 ▲
OPS
.374
166 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +57.4% more
Chicago: 9.8 vs Arizona: 6.3
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Arizona: 166.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.0% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +40.4% more
Arizona: 4.5 vs Chicago: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.0 0
CHC Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.1 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.3 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 14.5 12.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.5 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ARI
CHC
ARI
ML
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
54% 86-74
ATS
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
56% 89-71
TTL
52% 81-74-6
52% 80-73-8
46% 72-83-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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