Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Rays SF @ TB

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

13-19  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 6:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

19-12  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Landen Roupp
STARTING PITCHER

Landen Roupp

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Casey Legumina
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Legumina

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Landen Roupp None-None 3.18 -- 4.1 6
Casey Legumina None-None 3.95 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 Ldr ERA 3.95
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
GIANTS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

30.9%

Rays Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

SF By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

7.8%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SAN FRANCISCO
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 2
May 2, 2026 SF @ TB 1 - 5
May 1, 2026 SF @ TB 0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025 TB @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ SF 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .728
178 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4 vs San Francisco: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 2.0 1
TB Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 6.6 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.7 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 9.6 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.2 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SF
TB
SF
ML
58% 95-68
49% 79-81
58% 95-68
53% 85-75
ATS
60% 97-66
62% 100-60
55% 90-73
52% 83-77
TTL
47% 73-81-9
55% 82-68-10
51% 78-75-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 1 minute ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 45 minutes ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 17 hours, 57 minutes ago