HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
12-21 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
13-19 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Durbin
#5 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 3.29 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Caleb Durbin | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.29
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
RED SOX
0%
ASTROS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
HOU By 1-2 runs
13.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
7.8%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Boston
5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Boston
BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.169
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.354
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.582
▲
OPS
.409
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+30.3% more
Houston: 3.7
vs
Boston: 2.6
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Houston: 0.3
vs
Boston: 0.1
OPS (Season)
+17.3%
Houston: 58.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
6
BOS Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 10.3
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 6.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 15.2
8.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.7
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
47%
76-87
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
91-72
48%
79-84
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-84-9
47%
74-83-6
45%
69-86-9
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