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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

16-16  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 7:15 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

16-17  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Peyton Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Peyton Gray

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Anderson

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peyton Gray None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 2
Drew Anderson None-None 5.12 -- 2.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 5.12
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
RANGERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

77.3%

Tigers Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

10.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TEXAS
2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 DET @ TEX 6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026 DET @ TEX 3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026 DET @ TEX 4 - 10
May 3, 2026 TEX @ DET 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 TEX @ DET 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.713
OPS
▲ .720
183 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Texas: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +46.8% more
Detroit: 10.0 vs Texas: 6.8
Walks (L5) +24.8% more
Detroit: 3.0 vs Texas: 2.4
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.0 1
DET Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.6 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 6.8 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 11.2 14.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TEX
DET
TEX
ML
54% 86-73
53% 86-76
54% 87-73
57% 91-70
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 92-70
57% 91-69
61% 98-63
TTL
46% 69-81-9
53% 78-70-14
46% 69-81-10
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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