Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Cardinals LAD @ STL

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

20-12  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

19-13  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 1.54 -- 1.0 1
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.20 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.54 Ldr ERA 2.20
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
DODGERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

77.3%

Cardinals Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

10.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7
LOS ANGELES
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.762 ▲
OPS
.691
204 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +44.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +31.7% more
Los Angeles: 11.4 vs St. Louis: 7.8
Home Runs (Season) +18.1% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season) +10.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 7.0 2
STL Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.4 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 11.4 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.6 / 9.8 13.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
LAD
STL
LAD
ML
53% 85-74
56% 92-73
52% 84-77
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 98-67
53% 85-76
43% 72-94
TTL
46% 68-81-10
48% 77-82-6
50% 76-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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