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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

17-14  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

15-18  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Abner Uribe
STARTING PITCHER

Abner Uribe

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Abner Uribe None-None 3.65 -- 1.0 1
Orlando Ribalta None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.65 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
BREWERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MILWAUKEE
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MIL @ WSH 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 MIL @ WSH 4 - 1
May 1, 2026 MIL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 WSH @ MIL 8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ MIL 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.743
OPS
▲ .744
154
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +45.4% more
Milwaukee: 10.8 vs Washington: 5.9
Strikeouts (L5) +38.5% more
Milwaukee: 12.0 vs Washington: 7.4
Total Bases (L5) +38.4% more
Milwaukee: 15.3 vs Washington: 9.4
On-Base Pct (Season) +2.0%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.0 4
WSH Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 10.8 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 12.0 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 15.3 11.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.8 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57% 92-69
62% 101-61
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 94-68
57% 91-70
48% 78-84
TTL
50% 77-78-6
40% 62-92-8
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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