LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
53-29 | Road
98
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
52-30 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
LAKERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
LAL By 1-7 points
6.8%
LAL By 8-14 points
1.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
18.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
98
LOS ANGELES
Houston
111
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
108
LOS ANGELES
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o203.5
Loss
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim
u203.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 1, 2026
LAL @ HOU
98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026
HOU @ LAL
99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026
LAL @ HOU
96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026
LAL @ HOU
112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ LAL
94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.9% more
Houston: 12.0
vs
Los Angeles: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+28.1% more
Los Angeles: 18.3
vs
Houston: 13.1
Blocks (L5)
+17.3% more
Los Angeles: 5.7
vs
Houston: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Los Angeles: 47.8%
vs
Houston: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
98.0
98
HOU Score
111.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 33.3
18.0 / 43.0
Assists
22.9 / 23.8
13.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.7
9.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 47.8
35.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 77.9
71.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 40.0
45.0 / 54.0
Steals
12.0 / 7.9
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 18.3
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAL
HOU
LAL
ML
61%
69-44
61%
68-43
59%
51-35
54%
49-42
ATS
62%
70-43
61%
67-43-1
59%
51-35
54%
49-42
TTL
51%
58-55
61%
66-43-2
100%
86-0
100%
91-0
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