SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
13-18 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
18-12 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
JT Brubaker
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Brubaker | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.92 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25 Ldr
ERA
2.92
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
RAYS
0%
GIANTS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
SF @ TB
1 - 2
May 2, 2026
SF @ TB
1 - 5
May 1, 2026
SF @ TB
0 - 3
Aug 17, 2025
TB @ SF
1 - 7
Aug 16, 2025
TB @ SF
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.706
OPS
▲
.728
178
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
San Francisco: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.0
0
TB Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 6.9
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.1
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.3 / 10.9
12.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.3
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SF
TB
SF
ML
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
58%
95-68
53%
85-75
ATS
60%
97-66
62%
100-60
55%
90-73
52%
83-77
TTL
47%
73-81-9
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-75-10
46%
68-81-11
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