HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
11-19 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
14-15 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Blubaugh
#69 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Blubaugh | None-None | 5.89 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.89
ERA
Ldr 2.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
ASTROS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BAL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.711
4
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4875.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+12.9%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
3
BAL Score
6.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.0
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.0
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 16.2
14.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.0
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
HOU
BAL
HOU
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-82
57%
90-69
47%
77-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
91-72
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-6
45%
69-86-9
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