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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

15-16  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Apr 30 • 12:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

22-9  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Kinley
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Kinley

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Kinley None-None 1.29 -- 1.0 1
Bryce Elder None-None 1.88 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
1.29 Ldr ERA 1.88
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
TIGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

40.1%

Braves Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
DETROIT
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
6
DETROIT
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 DET @ ATL 5 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 DET @ ATL 3 - 4
Apr 28, 2026 DET @ ATL 2 - 5
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ DET 6 - 2
Sep 20, 2025 ATL @ DET 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.720
OPS
▲ .757
181 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +16.1% more
Atlanta: 3.8 vs Detroit: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season) +12.1% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Detroit: 4.5
Hits (L5) +10.4% more
Atlanta: 8.4 vs Detroit: 7.6
OPS (Season) +3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Detroit: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.0 5
ATL Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.6 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.7 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 14.7 10.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.3 8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
46% 77-90
54% 86-73
54% 90-78
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 96-71
64% 101-58
52% 87-81
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 83-73-11
46% 69-81-9
49% 76-80-11
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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