WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
14-17 | Road
5
NEW YORK
METSNYM
10-20 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | None-None | 8.23 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 8.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.23
ERA
Ldr 8.00
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
METS
0%
NATIONALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
WSH By 1-2 runs
10.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
5.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New York
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744
▲
OPS
.705
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.2% more
New York: 12.0
vs
Washington: 9.3
Walks (L5)
+26.5% more
New York: 4.2
vs
Washington: 3.3
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Washington: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
5
NYM Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.2
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
12.0 / 9.3
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 13.4
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50%
79-80
57%
92-69
48%
76-83
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
57%
91-70
TTL
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-78-6
51%
74-72-13
42%
65-90-6
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