WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
13-17 | Road
14
NEW YORK
METSNYM
10-19 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 6.55 | -- | 2.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.82 Ldr
ERA
6.55
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
METS
100%
NATIONALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744
▲
OPS
.705
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+59.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+17.4% more
Washington: 3.9
vs
New York: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+3.9%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
14
NYM Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 4.9
10.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 7.9
15.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 7.6
14.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.9
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50%
79-80
57%
92-69
48%
76-83
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
57%
91-70
TTL
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-78-6
51%
74-72-13
42%
65-90-6
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