DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
54-28 | Road
98
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
23.0%
MIN By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116
DENVER
Minnesota
111
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
109
DENVER
Minnesota
114
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.5
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+33.3% more
Denver: 9.5
vs
Minnesota: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+14.3% more
Denver: 4.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+30.4% more
Minnesota: 16.4
vs
Denver: 12.5
Rebounding (L5)
+16.2% more
Minnesota: 44.4
vs
Denver: 38.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.0
98
MIN Score
111.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 31.9
24.0 / 37.0
Assists
26.1 / 26.7
26.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.7
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 46.5
46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 82.1
71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
44.4 / 38.2
50.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.3 / 9.5
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 12.5
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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