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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

12-17  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

15-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lawrence Butler
STARTING PITCHER

Lawrence Butler

#4 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Lange None-None 7.11 -- 1.0 --
Lawrence Butler None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
7.11 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
ROYALS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

89.4%

Athletics Cover

10.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

ATH By 1-2 runs

5.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
8
KANSAS CITY
3
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .719
170
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +60.7% more
Kansas City: 2.0 vs Athletics: 0.8
Walks (L5) +36.1% more
Kansas City: 4.7 vs Athletics: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +33.1% more
Kansas City: 19.6 vs Athletics: 13.1
Strikeouts (L5) +24.4% more
Kansas City: 10.0 vs Athletics: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 8.0 2
ATH Score 3.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.8 / 10.1 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 10.0 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 19.6 16.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.7 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
KC
ATH
KC
ML
59% 95-67
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
58% 90-64-7
42% 66-90-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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