DETROIT
TIGERSDET
15-15 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
21-9 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 6.14 | -- | -- | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.14
ERA
Ldr 1.23
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
BRAVES
0%
TIGERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
DET By 1-2 runs
10.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
5.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
8
DETROIT
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DET @ ATL
5 - 2
Apr 29, 2026
DET @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 28, 2026
DET @ ATL
2 - 5
Sep 21, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
181
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.1% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Walks (L5)
+8.1% more
Atlanta: 3.7
vs
Detroit: 3.4
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Detroit: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.3%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Detroit: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.0
3
ATL Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.9
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.1
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 17.5
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
46%
77-90
54%
86-73
54%
90-78
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
96-71
64%
101-58
52%
87-81
57%
91-69
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
69-81-9
49%
76-80-11
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
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