Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Athletics KC @ ATH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

11-17  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Apr 28 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

15-13  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Perkins
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Perkins

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 4.38 -- 1.0 1
Jack Perkins None-None 2.92 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.38 ERA Ldr 2.92
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
ROYALS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

30.9%

Athletics Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .719
170
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
Athletics: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.0
Home Runs (Season) +14.1% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Home Runs (L5) +41.1% more
Kansas City: 2.0 vs Athletics: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +27.4% more
Kansas City: 20.9 vs Athletics: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 4
ATH Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 11.1 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 9.5 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 20.9 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.1 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
KC
ATH
KC
ML
59% 95-67
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
58% 90-64-7
42% 66-90-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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