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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

13-16  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Apr 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

9-19  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
@
Carson Benge
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Benge

#3 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zack Littell None-None 7.85 -- 3.2 1
Carson Benge None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
7.85 ERA --
-- WHIP --
3.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
METS
0%
NATIONALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +25.4% more
New York: 7.3 vs Washington: 5.8
Walks (L5) +13.9% more
New York: 3.8 vs Washington: 3.4
Total Bases (L5) +9.8% more
New York: 10.9 vs Washington: 9.9
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs New York: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 0
NYM Score 4.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 5.8 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 10.4 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 9.9 12.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.4 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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