PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
45-37 | Road
113
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
56-26 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
76ERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
PHI By 1-7 points
13.7%
PHI By 8-14 points
4.8%
BOS By 1-7 points
25.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
96
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
104
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
109
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+10)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u215.5
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u215.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 2, 2026
PHI @ BOS
109 - 100
Apr 30, 2026
BOS @ PHI
93 - 106
Apr 28, 2026
PHI @ BOS
113 - 97
Apr 26, 2026
BOS @ PHI
128 - 96
Apr 24, 2026
BOS @ PHI
108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+29.4% more
Boston: 13.9
vs
Philadelphia: 10.7
Rebounding (L5)
+27.3% more
Boston: 47.5
vs
Philadelphia: 37.3
Assists (L5)
+22.7% more
Boston: 25.9
vs
Philadelphia: 21.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Boston: 40.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
96.0
113
BOS Score
104.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 32.9
28.0 / 36.0
Assists
25.9 / 21.1
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.9 / 5.9
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 43.5
40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 77.3
61.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
47.5 / 37.3
49.0 / 47.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 10.7
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
57%
61-46
63%
69-40
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
ATS
59%
61-43-3
65%
71-38
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
TTL
56%
60-47
55%
60-49
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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