COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
11-16 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
9-17 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 2.55
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
METS
0%
ROCKIES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
COL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
New York
7
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Colorado
4
COLORADO
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
NYM @ COL
2 - 6
May 6, 2026
NYM @ COL
10 - 5
May 4, 2026
NYM @ COL
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2026
COL @ NYM
3 - 1
Apr 24, 2026
COL @ NYM
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.739
▲
OPS
.705
180
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+84.1% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Colorado: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.4% more
New York: 10.9
vs
Colorado: 8.2
Home Runs (Season)
+13.3% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Errors (L5)
+76.9% more
Colorado: 1.3
vs
New York: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
5.0
3
NYM Score
7.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 10.9
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 8.2
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 16.4
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
COL
NYM
COL
ML
50%
79-80
60%
97-64
48%
76-83
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-66
60%
97-64
49%
78-81
52%
83-78
TTL
55%
80-66-13
60%
93-62-6
51%
74-72-13
50%
77-78-6
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