Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Nuggets MIN @ DEN

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

49-33  |  Road

113
FINAL
Mon, Apr 27 • 10:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

54-28  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

46.0%

Nuggets Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIN By 8-14 points

16.9%

DEN By 1-7 points

24.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
113
MINNESOTA
112
DENVER
Simulated Score
109
MINNESOTA
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+12) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.0 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u225.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 DEN @ MIN 98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026 MIN @ DEN 113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026 DEN @ MIN 96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026 DEN @ MIN 96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026 MIN @ DEN 119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.7% more
Minnesota: 5.0 vs Denver: 4.0
Assists (L5) +13.5% more
Minnesota: 26.1 vs Denver: 22.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
Minnesota: 12.0 vs Denver: 10.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.1% more
Minnesota: 47.5 vs Denver: 42.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 113.0 113
DEN Score 112.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 34.3 38.0 / 43.0
Assists 22.6 / 26.1 35.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.0 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 47.0 57.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 80.9 80.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 47.5 29.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.5 16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.0 16.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54% 57-48
54% 63-53
55% 47-39
54% 50-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 67-49
55% 47-39
54% 50-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 86-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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