PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
43-27-12 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
41-25-16 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PHI By 1 goal
2.8%
PHI By 2-3 goals
1.2%
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+40.7% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5
vs
Philadelphia: 21.7
Takeaways (L5)
+12.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.8
vs
Philadelphia: 4.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.6% more
Philadelphia: 14.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.1
Power Play % (L5)
+17.9%
Philadelphia: 20.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.0
2
PIT Score
5.0
3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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