BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
10-17 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
13-14 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.04 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.04
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
ORIOLES
0%
RED SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.8%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+346.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+73.0% more
Baltimore: 1.2
vs
Boston: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+56.7% more
Baltimore: 3.7
vs
Boston: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
5
BAL Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 10.4
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.0
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 17.8
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.3
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
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