DETROIT
TIGERSDET
14-14 | Road
8
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
18-9 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pierce Johnson
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Pierce Johnson | None-None | 3.75 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
REDS
0%
TIGERS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
DET By 1-2 runs
10.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
5.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
DET @ CIN
8 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ CIN
2 - 9
Apr 24, 2026
DET @ CIN
8 - 9
Jun 15, 2025
CIN @ DET
8 - 4
Jun 14, 2025
CIN @ DET
11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720
▲
OPS
.699
181
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+23.5% more
Cincinnati: 2.8
vs
Detroit: 2.3
Home Runs (Season)
+17.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Detroit: 181.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.4% more
Detroit: 10.1
vs
Cincinnati: 6.4
Walks (L5)
+21.4% more
Detroit: 5.2
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.0
8
CIN Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 9.5
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 2.3
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 10.1
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
19.5 / 18.1
17.0 / 26.0
Walks
4.1 / 5.2
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DET
CIN
DET
ML
55%
88-71
54%
86-73
49%
79-81
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
86-73
64%
101-58
50%
80-80
57%
91-69
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
69-81-9
54%
83-72-5
46%
69-81-10
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