Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Blue Jays CLE @ TOR

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

15-13  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Apr 26 • 1:37 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

11-15  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Holderman None-None 4.15 -- 1.1 2
Louis Varland None-None 0.60 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.15 ERA Ldr 0.60
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
BLUE JAYS
0%
GUARDIANS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toronto)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

15.9%

Blue Jays Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CLE By 1-2 runs

7.8%

CLE By 3-4 runs

3.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CLEVELAND
6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 TOR @ CLE 6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 TOR @ CLE 11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 TOR @ CLE 1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 CLE @ TOR 2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026 CLE @ TOR 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.696 ▲
OPS
.692
162 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +16.2% more
Toronto: 9.9 vs Cleveland: 8.5
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Cleveland: 23.9%
Home Runs (L5) +28.5% more
Cleveland: 1.3 vs Toronto: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +6.2% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.0 2
TOR Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 8.5 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.6 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 14.3 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.9 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
46% 74-87
54% 87-74
50% 80-80
49% 80-82
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 80-76-5
55% 88-71-2
45% 70-85-5
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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