Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Reds DET @ CIN

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

14-13  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 7:15 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

17-9  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Drew Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Anderson

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Anderson None-None 6.60 -- 2.2 5
Emilio Pagan None-None 4.38 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.60 ERA Ldr 4.38
-- WHIP --
2.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
TIGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Cincinnati)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

15.9%

Reds Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

DET By 1-2 runs

7.8%

DET By 3-4 runs

3.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
DETROIT
8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 DET @ CIN 8 - 3
Apr 25, 2026 DET @ CIN 2 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 DET @ CIN 8 - 9
Jun 15, 2025 CIN @ DET 8 - 4
Jun 14, 2025 CIN @ DET 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720 ▲
OPS
.699
181
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +18.9% more
Cincinnati: 5.2 vs Detroit: 4.3
Home Runs (Season) +17.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Strikeouts (L5) +29.1% more
Detroit: 9.2 vs Cincinnati: 6.5
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Detroit: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.0 2
CIN Score 8.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 9.3 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 9.2 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 18.6 24.0 / 17.0
Walks 5.2 / 4.3 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DET
CIN
DET
ML
55% 88-71
54% 86-73
49% 79-81
54% 87-73
ATS
54% 86-73
64% 101-58
50% 80-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-72-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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