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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

11-16  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 4:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

11-15  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grant Taylor
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Taylor

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 4.85 -- 5.2 9
Grant Taylor None-None 3.21 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.85 ERA Ldr 3.21
-- WHIP --
5.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
WHITE SOX
0%
NATIONALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

White Sox Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
WASHINGTON
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 WSH @ CHW 2 - 1
Apr 25, 2026 WSH @ CHW 6 - 3
Apr 24, 2026 WSH @ CHW 4 - 5
Sep 28, 2025 CHW @ WSH 8 - 0
Sep 27, 2025 CHW @ WSH 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.744
OPS
▲ .826
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +39.0% more
Chicago: 9.7 vs Washington: 7.0
Walks (L5) +36.3% more
Chicago: 4.5 vs Washington: 3.3
Total Bases (L5) +32.9% more
Chicago: 17.1 vs Washington: 12.9
Runs per Game (Season) +18.3% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.0 6
CHW Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 7.0 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.7 15.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 12.9 8.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.3 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
WSH
CHW
WSH
ML
49% 81-86
57% 92-69
56% 94-73
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-68
56% 93-74
57% 91-70
TTL
58% 96-69-2
50% 77-78-6
51% 84-81-2
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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