CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
15-12 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
10-15 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.64 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 0.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
BLUE JAYS
0%
GUARDIANS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CLE By 1-2 runs
10.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
5.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
1
CLEVELAND
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.696
▲
OPS
.692
162
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.9% more
Toronto: 8.3
vs
Cleveland: 6.4
Walks (L5)
+26.0% more
Toronto: 3.5
vs
Cleveland: 2.8
Hits (L5)
+18.8% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Cleveland: 8.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Cleveland: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
1.0
3
TOR Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.2
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.4
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 14.0
16.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.8
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
55%
88-71-2
45%
70-85-5
43%
69-90-2
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