BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
9-17 | Road
17
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
13-13 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Albert Suarez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Albert Suarez | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 4.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.22
ERA
Ldr 3.46
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
ORIOLES
0%
RED SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+346.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+245.0% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Boston: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+116.1% more
Baltimore: 23.0
vs
Boston: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
17
BAL Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
12.0 / 7.0
6.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
3.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.1
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
23.0 / 10.7
7.0 / 32.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.5
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
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