DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
54-28 | Road
96
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
20.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIN By 1-7 points
8.0%
MIN By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
121
DENVER
Minnesota
109
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
107
DENVER
Minnesota
122
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.4%
Denver: 81.8%
vs
Minnesota: 73.4%
Blocks (L5)
+98.4% more
Minnesota: 5.0
vs
Denver: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+20.6% more
Minnesota: 28.2
vs
Denver: 23.4
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Minnesota: 6.7
vs
Denver: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
121.0
96
MIN Score
109.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 32.7
36.0 / 21.0
Assists
28.2 / 23.4
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.5
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 42.9
44.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 81.8
96.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 45.1
50.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.8
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.2
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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