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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

14-12  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, Apr 24 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

16-9  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brock Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Burke

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kenley Jansen None-None 3.68 -- 0.2 1
Brock Burke None-None 0.73 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.68 ERA Ldr 0.73
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
TIGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
DETROIT
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 DET @ CIN 8 - 3
Apr 25, 2026 DET @ CIN 2 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 DET @ CIN 8 - 9
Jun 15, 2025 CIN @ DET 8 - 4
Jun 14, 2025 CIN @ DET 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720 ▲
OPS
.699
181
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.7 vs Detroit: 3.5
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Detroit: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +17.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Home Runs (L5) +17.3% more
Detroit: 1.7 vs Cincinnati: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.0 8
CIN Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.5 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.7 4.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.3 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 15.4 25.0 / 25.0
Walks 4.7 / 3.5 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DET
CIN
DET
ML
55% 88-71
54% 86-73
49% 79-81
54% 87-73
ATS
54% 86-73
64% 101-58
50% 80-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-72-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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