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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

11-15  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 24 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

10-15  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Riley Cornelio
STARTING PITCHER

Riley Cornelio

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Newcomb
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Newcomb

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley Cornelio None-None 9.00 -- 2.0 1
Sean Newcomb None-None 4.50 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 4.50
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
WHITE SOX
0%
NATIONALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

White Sox Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
WASHINGTON
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 WSH @ CHW 2 - 1
Apr 25, 2026 WSH @ CHW 6 - 3
Apr 24, 2026 WSH @ CHW 4 - 5
Sep 28, 2025 CHW @ WSH 8 - 0
Sep 27, 2025 CHW @ WSH 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.744
OPS
▲ .826
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +72.4% more
Chicago: 4.3 vs Washington: 2.5
Hits (L5) +41.5% more
Chicago: 10.6 vs Washington: 7.5
Total Bases (L5) +33.9% more
Chicago: 19.1 vs Washington: 14.3
Home Runs (L5) +20.7% more
Chicago: 2.3 vs Washington: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.0 4
CHW Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.6 / 7.5 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.5 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 14.3 13.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.5 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
WSH
CHW
WSH
ML
49% 81-86
57% 92-69
56% 94-73
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-68
56% 93-74
57% 91-70
TTL
58% 96-69-2
50% 77-78-6
51% 84-81-2
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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